Which Mountain West School Is Poised to Dominate the New Pac-12?

Which Mountain West School Is Poised to Dominate the New Pac-12?

The shifting landscape of collegiate athletic conferences is prominently reflected in the Mountain West and Pac-12 realignment saga unfolding through 2026 and beyond. These developments represent a seismic realignment within college football and other sports, driven by evolving media rights, competitive balance, and institutional ambitions.

The Mountain West’s Vanishing Core: Schools Departing for the Pac-12

Beginning in 2026, the Pac-12 will absorb four prominent Mountain West schools: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Fresno State. These departures shrink the Mountain West from an 11-school league to just seven members, fundamentally altering its composition. This migration is part of the Pac-12’s effort to “rebuild” or survive after losing many of its historic Power Five members to other major conferences like the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC.

The move is not merely a lateral shift; it impacts longstanding rivalries, traditions, and regional identities. For example, rivalries such as the Border War between Colorado State and Wyoming face uncertainty as key players leave the Mountain West. The departure also threatens the Mountain West’s media rights and overall visibility, given that Boise State and San Diego State have historically been among the conference’s most marketable programs in football and basketball.

Furthermore, these schools’ exit is accompanied by significant exit fees and legal disputes. Estimated penalties related to leaving the Mountain West approach $110 million collectively, illustrating the financial and contractual complexities inherent in realignment decisions.

The Pac-12’s Bid to Rejuvenate Itself

The Pac-12’s ambitious expansion strives to restore and maintain its status as an NCAA Division I FBS conference. Integrating these Mountain West programs injects fresh talent and market reach, but the conference still needs to add additional members—one more full football member and Gonzaga, which will join in all sports but football—to meet NCAA requirements for FBS recognition.

Geographically, the new-look Pac-12 becomes more expansive, stretching beyond the traditional West Coast footprint to include Mountain West territories. This presents challenges in travel logistics and rivalry continuity but also opportunities for new fan engagements and media markets.

The Pac-12’s urgency stems from the broader Power Five conference shake-ups. The loss of flagship programs like USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington depleted the Pac-12’s competitive base and media draws. By absorbing the Mountain West schools, the conference attempts to avoid obsolescence and preserve a viable competitive future.

Mountain West’s Crossroads: Contemplating the Future

After losing key members, the Mountain West is compelled to seek replacements and restructure strategically. Potential candidates include universities from outside the traditional Mountain West footprint, such as Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA, which could offer fresh markets and competitive viability.

The Mountain West faces multiple challenges in this search:

Preserving Competitiveness: Maintaining a competitive level in football and basketball to secure favorable media deals.

Legal and Financial Hurdles: Resolving lawsuits related to exit fees and negotiating new media rights agreements once the current deal expires in 2026.

Conference Identity: Redefining the conference’s identity with a reduced number of traditional members and integrating newcomers from diverse geographic regions.

In a longer view, this realignment may force the Mountain West to innovate conference membership criteria beyond geography, potentially focusing on institutional fit, media market size, and athletic competitiveness.

Broader Implications of Conference Realignment

This situation epitomizes the broader transformation in college athletics, where media rights revenue and market reach increasingly dictate affiliation decisions rather than historical or regional ties. Conferences like the Pac-12 and Mountain West illustrate these shifting priorities:

– The Pac-12, after losing key members, is attempting a strategic reboot through acquisition of Mountain West teams and other potential newcomers.

– The Mountain West, once a strong Group of Five conference, faces a diminished footprint but looks for new paths to stabilize its future.

Both conferences must balance traditional regional loyalties with the financial imperatives of a rapidly evolving sports media environment.

Conclusion: A New Era Awaits Mountain West and Pac-12

The 2026 conference realignment represents a tipping point, marking the end of longstanding affiliations and the beginning of uncertain but potentially transformative chapters. The Mountain West’s future hinges on its success in replacing departed schools with strong, competitive members to sustain its relevance. Meanwhile, the Pac-12’s revival depends on integrating these newcomers effectively and securing additional members to ensure full FBS status.

Fans, athletes, and institutions will need to adapt to new rivalries, broader geographic footprints, and a different competitive landscape. This realignment not only reshapes schedules and TV broadcasts but fundamentally redefines identities and traditions. Whether these moves ultimately enrich or dilute college sports’ cultural fabric remains an evolving question—one that will unfold on fields, courts, and negotiation tables alike over the coming years.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *