2025 U.S. Open and PGA Championship: Odds, Picks, and Expert Model Predictions

The 2025 golf season’s major highlights feature the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, with leading stars Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy dominating pre-tournament betting markets and expert analyses. Both players, currently ranked in the world’s top two, have already secured major titles earlier in the year, positioning themselves as prime favorites to extend their legacy. Intriguingly, expert models that have accurately predicted winners in multiple recent majors, including the PGA Championship and Masters, are heavily favoring these two but also highlighting intriguing longshots.

—

Overview of Tournament Timelines and Conditions

– 2025 U.S. Open is scheduled to commence on Thursday, June 12, and will culminate on Father’s Day. This timing adds an emotional layer to the final round, possibly influencing player mindset.
– The PGA Championship kicks off earlier in the year (around mid-May) at Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina. Weather forecasts hint at rain, potentially softening course conditions, which impacts scoring dynamics.

These tournaments are highly anticipated, with both reflecting a deep field of consistent performers and potential dark horses.

—

Front-Running Favorites: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler enters the majors as the odds-on favorite in several betting markets:
– U.S. Open Odds: Around +320
– PGA Championship Odds: Ranging from approximately +425 to +500 in various sportsbooks

Scheffler’s rise to No. 1 in the world rankings is underpinned by his steady play and clutch performances under pressure. Models projecting the 2025 majors assign him a winning probability near 27.5% at the PGA Championship, based on strokes-gained data and course fit. His consistency and recent major victories bolster confidence in his ability to contend and possibly repeat.

Rory McIlroy

Challenging Scheffler closely, McIlroy represents a perennial threat with:
– U.S. Open Odds: Approximately +550
– PGA Championship Odds: Near +480 to +500

McIlroy’s experience, versatility across major venues, and excellent form this season make him a formidable rival. The model that correctly picked the PGA Championship winner spots McIlroy as a co-favorite, suggesting a high ceiling for his chances.

—

Other Top Contenders and Surprising Picks

While Scheffler and McIlroy dominate consensus betting odds, several other players are receiving attention from advanced predictive models:

– Bryson DeChambeau: +900 odds; known for power and unique approach, he remains a threat, especially if conditions call for length.
– Jon Rahm: +1200 odds; a former major champion with steady ball-striking and mental toughness.
– Xander Schauffele: +1700 odds; coming into form at just the right time, he is singled out as a value pick who could surge.
– Ludvig Aberg: +1900 odds; a less conventional pick but suggested by models as a potential high-impact dark horse.

The models also highlight a group of longshots at 20-1 odds or longer, presenting betting value and excitement for those willing to take risks on potential breakthroughs.

—

Methodology Behind Expert Model Predictions

The predictions building anticipation for these majors leverage simulation-based models that:
– Run thousands of tournament iterations (e.g., 10,000 simulations for the U.S. Open).
– Employ strokes-gained statistics and historical performance data.
– Factor in recent form, course characteristics, weather forecasts, and psychological components.
– Have a proven track record, having accurately forecasted recent major winners, including the PGA Championship and Masters.

Such models provide bettors and golf enthusiasts with nuanced insights far beyond raw odds, differentiating favorites from sleepers in a crowded field.

—

Strategic Insights for Fans and Bettors

Betting Strategy Considerations

For Fans

Watching the 2025 majors promises compelling storylines:
– Will the top two ranked players maintain their dominance across consecutive majors?
– Can a longshot disrupt the expected narrative with a surprise win?
– How will conditions and pressure at pivotal moments influence outcomes on Father’s Day?

—

Conclusion: Anticipating a Season of Thrilling Major Championships

The 2025 U.S. Open and PGA Championship set the stage for a titanic clash among golf’s elite stars, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy poised to add major titles to their already impressive resumes. Supported by robust and proven predictive models, their odds reflect deserved respect, yet the ever-present possibility of dark horse contenders adds intrigue. Golf fans and bettors alike stand on the precipice of a thrilling major season, where precision, strategy, and resilience will define champions. Whether it’s the favored frontrunners or the surprise upstarts that emerge victorious, 2025 promises golf at its most captivating.