Analyzing the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Key Contenders, Odds, and Expert Predictions
The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes, scheduled for Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Pimlico Race Course, has generated considerable excitement within the horse racing community. This year’s field features a competitive lineup of nine horses, led by Journalism, the current 8-5 favorite. However, the race is marked by some notable absences and intriguing expert insights that add layers of complexity to the betting landscape.
Overview of the 2025 Preakness Stakes Field and Favoritism
The standout horse in the Preakness lineup is Journalism, who narrowly missed winning the Kentucky Derby, finishing second to Sovereignty. Journalism’s placement as the 8-5 favorite reflects both his proven speed—demonstrated by a 108 Beyer Speed Figure—and his consistent performances, albeit mainly racing in California prior to this event. This disparity—being a top competitor yet untested outside California—adds an element of suspense to his potential performance at Pimlico.
Sovereignty, who claimed victory in the Kentucky Derby, has opted out of the Preakness to focus on the Belmont Stakes scheduled three weeks later. This strategic withdrawal opens the field and elevates other contenders in the bettors’ and experts’ estimations.
Other contenders with noteworthy odds and prospects include:
– Sandman (4-1): Positioned as a strong secondary bet behind Journalism, Sandman’s competitive odds suggest potential for an upset or at least a strong showing.
– River Thames (9-2): Another contender with solid odds, reflecting confidence but not favoritism.
– Clever Again (5-1): Considered a talented, though less proven, talent. Clever Again recorded a commendable 101 Beyer Speed Figure recently at Oaklawn Park, indicating the capacity to challenge the favorites if conditions align.
Expert Predictions and Betting Insights
Jody Demling, a renowned horse racing expert known for accurate predictions—highlighted by his success in correctly forecasting top Kentucky Derby finishers and hitting multiple Preakness trifectas—offers a nuanced outlook that guides bettors. Demling’s predictions and futures bets frequently spotlight horses beyond just the favorites, providing alternative strategies for wagering.
Interestingly, while Journalism is often the public favorite, Demling and other expert analyses suggest that he might not be the top pick to win outright. The experts emphasize tactical considerations, such as post positions and race conditions, which could advantage other horses like Clever Again or Sandman.
Demling’s track record includes:
– Correctly picking 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners.
– Successfully predicting exacta, trifecta, and superfecta results in 2023.
– Identifying the trifecta in the 2024 Preakness Stakes.
This history lends credibility to his analysis and earns attention from bettors seeking informed guidance.
Strategic Considerations: Post Positions, Conditioning, and Race Dynamics
Updated post positions, jockey lineups, and trainers also figure heavily into expert handicapping. Early indications show Journalism breaking from post position 2, which is favorable for a horse that prefers to race near the rail without getting boxed in. Meanwhile, horses like Clever Again, starting from outer posts (post 8), might leverage the outside draw for a tactical edge, allowing strategic positioning early in the race.
Sovereignty’s absence changes the race’s dynamic; without the Derby winner in contention, there’s a void in dominance that other horses are eager to fill. This void increases the unpredictability, empowering those “dark horse” candidates and making the betting field more competitive.
The conditioning of runners also matters: Journalism demonstrated strong closing speed but is seeking redemption after the Derby loss. Clever Again shows upward trajectory with a recent dominant stakes win by four lengths, suggesting rising form that could threaten favorites.
Odds Fluctuations and Market Sentiment
Market reactions to recent developments have seen Journalism rise to the 8-5 favorite position, recovering from earlier odds where Sovereignty held the top spot. Other horses such as Rodriguez, previously among the favorites, have been ruled out due to injury, further altering betting strategies.
Notably, the top six horses are clustered around odds of 6/1 or shorter, indicating a fairly tight competitive range and no clear overwhelming favorite besides Journalism.
Implications for Bettors and Fans
For bettors, the 2025 Preakness Stakes offers both risks and opportunities:
– Betting on Journalism aligns with the favorites supported by speed figures and recent performances but carries the risk associated with stepping up beyond California races and seeking race redemption.
– Wagering on horses like Clever Again or Sandman offers potentially excellent value, especially if they capitalize on post positions and race pace.
– Expert picks from Jody Demling provide invaluable perspective, particularly for exotic wagers like exactas and trifectas, where detailed race knowledge translates to better predictions.
Conclusion: A Highly Competitive and Unpredictable Preakness Stakes
The 2025 Preakness Stakes stands out as a thrilling and highly competitive race shaped by the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and the favoritism placed on Journalism. Expert analysis encourages bettors to weigh form, post position, trainer strategies, and historical trends carefully before making decisions.
While Journalism’s status as favorite is justified by recent performances and high Beyer Speed Figures, horses such as Clever Again possess the talent and momentum to disrupt expectations. The fluidity of odds and evolving expert opinions underscore that this year’s Preakness Stakes promises excitement, unpredictability, and dynamic betting opportunities that capture the essence of Triple Crown racing drama.
