The 2025 Preakness Stakes, marking the 150th running of this historic race, has garnered intense attention from horse racing enthusiasts, experts, and bettors alike. With a field of highly talented three-year-olds, the race promises to deliver drama, competition, and unpredictability. This comprehensive analysis will delve into the upcoming race, examining the key contenders, odds, predictions, and betting strategies, while contextualizing the developments shaping this year’s event.
Setting the Stage: The Significance of the 2025 Preakness Stakes
The Preakness Stakes, as the second jewel of the American Triple Crown, holds an esteemed place in horse racing history. It’s a race that often serves as a decisive hurdle for Kentucky Derby contenders aiming for the elusive Triple Crown. The 2025 edition, in particular, is notable because Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will not be participating, creating a different dynamic in the race’s competitive landscape. The absence of Sovereignty, coupled with the presence of strong other contenders, fuels predictions of a wide-open contest.
The race is scheduled for Saturday, May 17, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, with a post time of approximately 6:50 p.m. ET. Expectations are heightened because this race tests the endurance and speed of promising three-year-olds under the intense pressure of a classic race. It’s a pivotal hurdle in the three-year-old season that can define careers and impact future breeding valuations.
The Key Contenders and Their Odds
Journalism: The Heavyweight Favorite
Across various betting platforms and expert analyses, Journalism emerges as the clear favorite, holding an 8-5 morning-line odds. This elite colt finished second at the Kentucky Derby, a performance that cements his status as a top contender. His consistent form, high speed figures, and recent competitive performances make him a prime candidate for victory. The bettors’ confidence in Journalism stems from his strong track record in recent races and the fact that he remains one of the few horses in the field with Derby experience.
However, the absence of Sovereignty, who was expected to be a dominant force, opens opportunities for other runners to claim the spotlight. Journalisms’ owner and trainer combination offers a blend of experienced handling and robust breeding, contributing to the high confidence in his chances.
Sandman: A Formidable Challenger
Close behind in the betting odds is Sandman, listed at 4-1. Sandman is notable for his trip from the Kentucky Derby, where he performed respectably, and for his speed figures that suggest he can challenge Journalism. His connections have highlighted his versatility and stamina, qualities essential for success at Pimlico’s unique distance and track configuration.
River Thames: Emerging Threat
Positioned at 9-2, River Thames is seen by many as an intriguing dark horse. Despite a less prominent Derby showing, his recent workouts and race performances suggest he is progressing well and could capitalize on any field weaknesses. His jockey and trainer partnerships have been effective in producing results, and his profile remains promising.
Clever Again: The Underestimated Contender
Clever Again, at 5-1 odds, has caught the attention of analysts for reasons beyond just his track record. Trained by Steven M. Asmussen, a Hall of Fame trainer, Clever Again boasts impressive bloodlines and speed figures, even though his on-track success has been limited due to light racing. His pedigree suggests potential for durability and late-pace acceleration, making him a strategic pick for bettors seeking value.
Expert predictions often emphasize Clever Again because of the combination of his lineage and unexploited potential. His odds reflect a wide field with no clear runaway favorite, creating a landscape ripe for an upset.
Other Notable Horses and Factors
Apart from these primary contenders, the field potentially includes horses like Goal Oriented (5-1), American Promise (15-1), and Rodriguez, who was initially expected to join but was ultimately ruled out due to injury. The withdrawal of Sovereignty and Rodriguez reshapes the race, with the field consolidating around the remaining competitors.
In addition, the post positions—drawn on May 12—will influence race dynamics. Historically, horses drawn towards the inside or outside can have strategic advantages or disadvantages depending on track conditions and jockey tactics. Expert analysis often emphasizes the importance of jockeys and trainers in navigating these positional factors.
The Impact of Leadership and Recent Performances
The 2025 Preakness Stakes field’s composition reflects broader trends in three-year-old racing. Horses like Sovereignty, who had strong Derby performances, will be absent, altering the traditional narrative. Instead, the race may favor horses with stamina and tactical ability, such as Clever Again, who could benefit from a well-structured trip.
Moreover, recent performances on shorter rest, like Swiss Skydiver and Seize the Grey in 2020, suggest that horses returning from the Kentucky Derby can still be competitive. This creates an additional layer of strategy and speculation regarding race fitness and fatigue.
Betting Strategies and Predictions
Given the current odds and the unpredictable nature of the field, bettors are advised to consider multiple strategies:
– Value Betting: Horses like Clever Again, with 5-1 odds, offer significant value, especially when expert predictions favor a competitive race.
– Exotic Bets: With the race expected to be closely contested, wagers like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas could be lucrative. Experts like Jody Demling have previously demonstrated success with such bets, emphasizing the importance of analyzing post positions and pace scenarios.
– Focus on Speed Figures and Lineage: Horses with proven stamina, strong pedigrees, and recent high-speed performances should be prioritized.
– Avoid Overconfidence in Favorites: While Journalism is the favorite, history has shown that the Preakness can produce surprises, especially when top contenders face tactical challenges or race-day variances.
The Broader Context: Past Trends and Future Implications
Historically, the Preakness has been a race of surprises. The fact that the last five winners of the second leg of the Triple Crown did not run in the Kentucky Derby indicates that the race is often won by fresh or strategically rested horses. In 2020, Swiss Skydiver achieved this feat, and last year’s Seize the Grey followed suit.
In this year’s context, the absence of Sovereignty—likely to be regarded as a Derby standout—makes the race more open and less predictable. It enhances the importance of tactical positioning, trainer expertise, and adaptability.
Furthermore, the race’s outcome can influence subsequent breeding valuations and careers. A Preakness victory boosts a horse’s stud value, especially when it demonstrates versatility and stamina.
Conclusion: An Exciting Race with Endless Possibilities
The 2025 Preakness Stakes promises an exhilarating contest marked by strategic shifts, emerging contenders, and compelling storylines. With Journalism holding the favorite’s role and several other horses capable of victory, bettors and fans should prepare for a race that balances tradition with surprise. The withdrawal of Sovereignty has opened the door for a wide-open field where form, pedigree, tactical nous, and race-day execution will determine the champion.
For horse racing enthusiasts, this race is not just about crowning a winner but about witnessing how talent, strategy, and sometimes luck intertwine on a historic stage. The 150th Preakness Stakes is set to provide exhilarating action, memorable moments, and perhaps, a new chapter in racing history.
A Moment to Remember
As the gates open on race day, each contender’s story, preparation, and potential converge for a fleeting but impactful moment of glory. The 2025 Preakness Stakes exemplifies the allure of horse racing—a sport where uncertainty reigns, passion ignites, and legends are born. Embrace the unpredictability, celebrate the skill, and revel in the timeless thrill that only this race can deliver.
