The 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club is generating significant anticipation, with a captivating mix of favorites and intriguing longshots shaping the competitive landscape. As the third major of the year, this event draws a star-studded field, expert betting models, and a focus on course-specific challenges that are influencing predictions and odds across major sports outlets.
The Favorites Standing Out: Scheffler, DeChambeau, and McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler emerges as the clear-cut favorite in preseason betting markets, and with good reason. He holds odds around +280 to win, reflecting both his current top form and historical performance consistency. Scheffler’s status as World No. 1 adds to his credibility, and his ability to dominate in major situations has the betting world firmly behind him. The US Open’s demanding conditions appear well suited to his style, and his past performances suggest a readiness for Oakmont’s challenges.
Following Scheffler closely is defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, whose odds range near +700. DeChambeau’s power game and recent major championship success cannot be underestimated. While his form has fluctuated, his experience winning on similarly tough setups makes him a contender.
Rory McIlroy, with odds around +1100, is also a pivotal figure. Questions about whether he can rediscover his peak game swirl, yet he remains among the most skilled and mentally resilient players in the field. His familiarity with Oakmont, combined with strong history in majors, positions him as a perennial threat.
Dark Horses and Longshots: The Fleetwood Case
Tommy Fleetwood is a standout among the longshots, consistently highlighted by experts and models as a value pick at approximately 40-1 (+3500 to +4000 odds). He has compiled strong recent form, including top-16 finishes in four of his last five starts and solid results in previous U.S. Opens. Fleetwood’s strengths lie particularly in his approach shots—ranking 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach—and his reliable putting game (48th in Strokes Gained: Putting). Although his driving ranks lower (67th on Tour), his precision around the greens and experience on tough courses like Oakmont make him an attractive pick.
Experts note Fleetwood’s success on similar-type par-70 courses, and his consistent performance in recent seasons signals he’s peaking at an ideal time. Multiple betting panels and simulation models echo confidence in his chances, elevating him as a sleeper worth considering for bettors looking beyond the crowd favorites.
Other Notables: Rahm, Schauffele, and Emerging Contenders
Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele also figure prominently in the expert discussions. Rahm’s consistent major presence and all-around skill set place him in contention, while Schauffele’s U.S. Open history indicates he “shows up” when it counts. Schauffele’s odds are typically around +2200, positioning him as a serious but slightly undervalued threat.
Additionally, players like Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Henley make appearances in betting markets and expert forecasts as reliable options who could influence outcomes, especially for those playing fantasy golf or deeper betting pools.
Course and Conditions Impacting Predictions
Oakmont Country Club is known for its extreme difficulty, with tight fairways, dense rough, and lightning-fast greens which traditionally favor precision and mental toughness. The historic nature of the course, combined with difficult pin placements, demands a strong all-around game, particularly in approach shots and putting.
Experts emphasize the necessity of staying within the top 10 after the first round, given historical data where nine of the past eleven U.S. Open winners fit this profile. This underline the importance of a steady start and course management, elements players like Taylor Pendrith and Mackenzie Hughes embody and which could propel overlooked contenders.
Prop Bets and Strategic Picks
Prop betting in the lead-up highlights not only outright winners but also placements such as top-5 and top-10 finishes. Given Scheffler’s historic betting odds, some odds makers are offering unique proposition bets on his margin of victory, reflecting confidence in a dominant performance. Meanwhile, Fleetwood and other longshots represent high-upside options for bettors seeking outsized returns on exotic wagers.
Experts also weigh in on player matchups, including scenarios like Tommy Fleetwood versus Viktor Hovland, where individual head-to-head bets present compelling opportunities based on form and stylistic matchups.
Predictions Summary and Betting Insights
– Scottie Scheffler: Strong favorite with consistent top finishes; best bet for outright win, particularly given his +280 odds.
– Bryson DeChambeau: Power and experience make him a solid contender at +700 odds, especially if he recaptures form.
– Rory McIlroy: Skilled veteran with +1100 odds, capable of a deep run if form peaks.
– Tommy Fleetwood: Leading sleeper pick at 40-1 or longer, with strong all-around stats and top-16 recent finishes creating excellent value.
– Xander Schauffele & Jon Rahm: Reliable major performers worthy of top-10 or top-5 consideration.
– Other Sleepers: Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Henley offer potential for surprising performances.
Concluding Thoughts: A Tournament of Opportunity and Challenge
The 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont shapes up to be a tournament of contrasts—between dominant favorites and dark horses, power hitters and precise strategists. While Scottie Scheffler commands most of the attention and betting dollars, Tommy Fleetwood’s emerging storyline adds flavorful intrigue. Fleetwood’s combination of recent form, course compatibility, and favorable odds makes him a compelling outsider poised to disrupt predictions.
Bettors and fans alike should embrace the complexity of Oakmont’s test, appreciating that historically, U.S. Open champions blend skill, resilience, and mental toughness. Monitoring early rounds will be key, given historical trends favoring those in the Top 10 after Day 1. Ultimately, this tournament promises rich narratives, striking performances, and strategic intrigue, making it one of the most captivating events on golf’s 2025 calendar.
