The 2025 Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be one of the most captivating chapters in the history of American horse racing’s Triple Crown. Scheduled for Saturday, June 7, 2025, at the Saratoga Race Course in New York, this Grade 1 event promises high drama, elite competition, and significant betting intrigue. This detailed analysis explores the key horses entered, prevailing odds, expert predictions, and context for what makes this race a vital test for three-year-old thoroughbreds.
The Race and Its Significance
Often dubbed the “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is the final jewel in the Triple Crown, following the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Unlike its two predecessors held at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, respectively, the Belmont is renowned for its extreme length — 1.5 miles — requiring a rare blend of speed, stamina, and racecraft from competitors. Historically, it has made or broken Triple Crown aspirations and is revered as the ultimate endurance challenge for emerging racing stars.
Leading Contenders: Profiles and Form
The 2025 Belmont Stakes field includes some of the most talented three-year-olds racing this season, headlined by the Kentucky Derby and Preakness victors.
Sovereignty (8-5 Favorite)
Sovereignty, who emerged triumphant in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, is the betting favorite going into Belmont. With morning line odds of 8-5, the horse has demonstrated both speed and the ability to handle pressure in the Triple Crown series opener. Notably, Sovereignty skipped the Preakness Stakes, a strategic decision that could pay dividends on Belmont day, allowing the horse to be fresher for the grueling distance at Saratoga. Regular rider Junior Alvarado is expected to keep Sovereignty positioned closer to the early pace than during the Kentucky Derby, an approach that may maximize stamina over the 1.5-mile test.
Journalism (9-5)
The Preakness Stakes winner Journalism is close on Sovereignty’s heels at 9-5 odds. This horse provides a fascinating counterpoint, having recently activated peak form with a prestigious victory at Pimlico on May 17. Journalism’s recent Preakness success means the contender enters Belmont with strong momentum but potentially less rest. Still, Training and tactical aggression may help overcome that challenge, making this a showdown between sustained freshness and recent peak fitness.
Baeza (7-2) and Rodriguez (6-1)
Baeza, third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, is positioned as a strong underdog with odds of 7-2. The horse has shown consistent top-tier performance and could disrupt the favorite duel if the pace scenario favors a closer. Rodriguez, owned by renowned trainer Bob Baffert, brings additional intrigue. Although scratched previously in the Triple Crown lineup, Rodriguez is primed to make a debut at Belmont with an 8-1 (approximate) odds mark. His connections’ strategic decisions will be worth watching closely.
Other Entries
Additional contenders include Hill Road and Heart of Honor, who trail the main favorites but could serve as tactical pace-setters or dark horses capable of an upset. The complete post position draw is scheduled for June 2, 2025, which will add further context, influencing pace scenarios and betting strategies.
Expert Predictions and Betting Insights
Jody Demling, an expert with a striking track record—having accurately picked four of the last seven Belmont Stakes winners—has revealed his 2025 picks. His insights carry weight among bettors and horse racing enthusiasts alike. Demling notably nailed the correct order of the top three finishers at the Kentucky Derby and pinpointed the exacta in this year’s Preakness Stakes, validating his prognostic skill.
According to Demling and other expert analyses, the battle for supremacy in the Belmont is primarily expected between Sovereignty and Journalism, but with credible threats from Baeza and Rodriguez. Demling advocates watching how jockeys position their mounts early, especially with Sovereignty’s adjusted ride strategy favoring proximity to the lead, to withstand the unprecedented distance.
Caesars Sportsbook of Nevada opened its odds with Sovereignty as the narrow fave at 8-5, while Journalism was installed at 9-5. These odds mirror general betting public sentiment and expert predictions, emphasizing the two-horse rivalry. However, some slight variations appear from other sportsbooks and racing analysts, particularly regarding Baeza and Rodriguez’s chances.
Race Day Dynamics at Saratoga Race Course
The 2025 Belmont Stakes will take place not at its traditional Belmont Park but at the Saratoga Race Course, adding an extra layer of novelty and challenge. Saratoga’s track configuration and surface differ, which could influence horses’ performance. Connections who have prepared their horses to adapt to this venue may have an edge.
Post time is confirmed at 6:50 p.m. Eastern Time on June 7, 2025, with a $2 million purse emphasizing the race’s prestige and competitive depth.
Conclusion: A Climax of Rivalry and Endurance
The 2025 Belmont Stakes promises a compelling showdown that taps into the heart of American thoroughbred racing lore. Sovereignty’s fresh approach to the Belmont distance contrasts with Journalism’s recent victory ride, creating a thrilling narrative of strategy versus momentum. Meanwhile, reliable dark horses like Baeza and Rodriguez add complexity, ensuring no outcome is a foregone conclusion.
With expert predictions favoring a tactical, stamina-driven race and post-position strategies shaping early pace, the final leg of the Triple Crown remains wide open. For bettors, racing fans, and casual observers, the 2025 Belmont Stakes is poised to deliver a memorable celebration of equine athleticism, resilience, and the enigmatic pursuit of racing glory.
